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Thailand and Vietnam are poised to benefit significantly from Donald Trump's potential return to the White House, according to Kasikorn Asset Management. The anticipated increase in tariffs on Chinese goods is expected to redirect investments towards these Southeast Asian markets, enhancing their stock performance.
Thailand's baht declined over 1% to 34.739 per dollar, marking its weakest point since August 19. Investor concerns about the erosion of the central bank's independence intensified after reports indicated that Kittiratt Na-Ranong, a former finance minister critical of the bank's policies, is set to become its new chairman.
Thailand is poised to appoint former Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong as the new chairman of the Bank of Thailand, reflecting the government's intention to assert more control over the central bank amid ongoing tensions regarding monetary policy and inflation targets. Kittiratt, known for his criticism of the bank's hawkish stance, was selected following a nearly five-hour meeting of the selection panel.
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) is in discussions with US authorities following sanctions imposed on 15 Indian entities for allegedly aiding Russia's military-industrial base. MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal emphasized India's strong legal framework on strategic trade and its commitment to non-proliferation, while also working to inform Indian companies about new export control measures. The US has sanctioned a total of 275 individuals and entities, including those from China, Switzerland, Thailand, and Turkiye, for supplying critical technology to Russia.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are expected to benefit Southeast Asian economies, particularly Indonesia and Thailand, by boosting portfolio inflows and commodity prices. Central banks in these countries are likely to follow the Fed's lead, with Indonesia already cutting rates for the first time in three years. The Thai baht has strengthened, prompting calls for further rate cuts to stimulate investment and address high household debt.
Thailand will maintain its inflation target at 1% to 3% for the upcoming year, a decision reached after a meeting between Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira and Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput. This outcome supports the central bank's stance against government pressure for a higher target, while emphasizing the need for measures to encourage price growth to 2% and bolster the economy.
Thailand's newly established $4.5 billion state-controlled investment fund, Vayupak Fund I, has begun purchasing local stocks and is contemplating the use of equity derivatives to safeguard its capital. The fund, which attracted around 50,000 Thai investors, plans to invest approximately 90% of its assets in local equities and may expand its team to enhance expertise in derivatives if necessary.
Thailand's leading business groups and commercial banks are urging Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to implement new measures to boost consumer spending and address high household debt levels. Executives from the Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Federation of Thai Industries, and the Thai Bankers Association presented a series of recommendations to tackle the challenges facing the country's economy.
Thailand's healthcare system faces imminent collapse due to an aging population and rising non-communicable diseases (NCDs). With a fertility rate of just 1.1 and a significant increase in diabetes and hypertension, experts warn that without urgent action, the country could face a financial crisis by 2034. Collaborative efforts and strong government leadership are essential to address these challenges.
Thailand's central bank governor, Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, indicated that further interest rate cuts are unlikely, emphasizing a high threshold for additional adjustments following last week's reduction. He cited slowing credit growth as a key reason for the recent rate cut, while defending the current inflation target amid government pressure for policy easing.
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